Theory of Change

Overview

CHRF’s Theory of Change connects regenerative agroforestry practices with community wealth creation. By moving upstream, from food distribution to land ownership, the farm transforms short-term food access into long-term equity and ecological resilience. The model centers on shared prosperity through a Perpetual Purpose Trust (PPT), ensuring that those who cultivate the land participate directly in its financial and social returns.

 

Framework

Inputs → Activities → Outputs → Outcomes → Long-Term Impact
 

Inputs:
Land secured through the Otsego Land Trust; equity from BIPOC and women investors; $400,000 catalytic financing; SUNY Cobleskill partnership; community and worker participation.

Activities:
Establish agroforestry systems (hazelnut–truffle, elderberry, black currant, black locust, black walnut); implement non–buy-in PPT; profit-sharing for workers; training and research through the Regional Agroforestry Demonstration Center.

Outputs:
Acres under regenerative management; new perennial crops producing revenue within three years; seasonal workers trained and compensated through profit-sharing; demonstration site established with SUNY Cobleskill.

Outcomes (5–10 years):
Profitable, worker-benefiting agroforestry enterprise; equitable participation of BIPOC farmers; documented carbon reduction and soil regeneration; regional demonstration of viable shared-ownership farming.

Long-Term Impact (20–30 years):
Intergenerational wealth creation through tree-based assets; carbon sequestration, 60 tons over 10 years, 252 tons over 20 years, and 774 tons over 30 years.; permanent worker and community ownership; a replicable model for regenerative, justice-centered agriculture.

 

Core Logic

If historically excluded farmers and workers gain shared ownership of land-based enterprises, and if these enterprises operate on regenerative, perennial systems that produce both cash flow and ecological value, then wealth and opportunity will circulate within the community rather than extract from it,  creating lasting prosperity and environmental health.

 

Guiding Principles

1. Equity before efficiency: Shared ownership and fair profit distribution precede market expansion.

2. Regeneration over extraction: Soil, tree, and human systems are restored, not depleted.

3. Education and replication: Knowledge-sharing with SUNY Cobleskill ensures the model can be scaled regionally.

4. Permanence through trust: Dual trust structures (Land Trust + Purpose Trust) protect mission and assets in perpetuity.